Ebony's Pearls

Until the National Bureau of Economic Research says we're in a recession, then officially, we aren't in one. It doesn't matter at all what the reality is that people are experiencing: lost jobs, wage reductions, stagnant wages, rising costs, reduced purchasing power, longer soup kitchen lines, increasing foreclosures and bankruptcies (which we'd have if Bush hadn't signed the law that makes it so much more difficult for low and middle income people to file for bankruptcy), larger homeless population, people drowning in debt caused by usurious interest rates which aren't even close to earned interest rates, and curtailed luxuries. As long as the GNP continues to rise, however minutely, the NBER will not declare a recession or depression.

It's like the weather, if it's 33ºF, we'd say it's freezing - and water, given the windchill, will start icing up, but the meteorologists won't say "freezing" until the actual temperature falls to or below 32ºF.

Our experience is that it is freezing, no matter what the meteorologists say. People will die in weather like that, others will experience hardships from it; yet, it's technically not freezing.

Apparently, the NBER feels the same way. Regardless of the actual experiences of people, until specific markers are hit, they won't declare that we're in a recession.

I find this kind of willful blindness disturbing, because until we are "officially" in a recession, most government agencies and businesses that could turn the economy around while it's still easy to fix will do nothing. They are waiting for that official declaration, and until then, they can keep deluding themselves that everything's good.

Of course, it doesn't help that the very people who make those sort of policy decisions keep voting themselves enormous pay raises while denying any relief to those who are working hard and suffering from stagnant wages.

We don't wait to prepare for winter weather until it's at or below freezing; why would we wait until we're "officially" in a recession to prepare for it?